and consistency of market research, ie, it determines future performance on the market size, demand, supply, competitiveness, the elasticity of demand, prices, including indicators of production, domestic and foreign trade, monetary and financial sector, as well as data on investments and orders, and company structure, etc. It should also be borne in mind that marketing involves a forecast of market development, including general economic conditions forecast, assessment of the prospects of development of consumption, political stability, the aggregate level of risk, etc. Building and short-term and long-term forecasts based on the objective characteristics of the phenomena of social and economic life of society, namely its inertia. Thus, the prediction of market conditions - the final phase of a comprehensive study of the market, the main results of which firms use in planning their activities. Usually tactical projections are used to determine the tactical actions for the near-term (not more than 1 year), because it is in these time can accurately predict the behavior of the commercial environment. Short-term forecasts are for up to 1.5 years. The main emphasis is placed on quantitative and qualitative assessments of changes in the volume of production, demand, supply and consumption of goods, the level of competitiveness and price indices, exchange rates, the ratio of exchange and credit conditions. Also take into account the time, random factors. Medium-term (5 years) and long term (10 - 15 years) forecasting commodity markets is based on a system of betting: market conditions, supply and demand, international trade and environmental protection. At the mid-term and long-term forecasts do not take into account the time and random factors influencing the market. During the prediction opportunistic important to note that: absolutely impossible to get an accurate forecast.
Therefore, we should strive to minimize the uncertainty that is inherent in every forecast;
It is necessary to develop range of alternative options for the development of market conditions, depending on the impact of various conjuncture-forming factors;
Develop forecasts should be made continuously and routinely. Determine the most probable estimates of market conditions in the future may be different ways.
The most representative of these are the following: The method of expert estimates. The method, based on the identification and synthesis of the views of experienced specialists and experts (the term «expert» in Latin means «experienced»), using their expertise and innovative approaches to the analysis of the organization. Of course, that by itself the method of expert assessment is not comprehensive, and reliable prediction of conditions, usually supplemented by other methods. Statistical extrapolation method (the method of trend or an extension of the time series). It is to transfer events occurring in the market in the past, over the forecast period. This is a simple method, but it is not quite long-lasting. It can be applied only in cases where there is confidence that the forecast period will be subject to the same factors as in the preceding period, and the nature of the impact of these factors remain unchanged. The method of economic and mathematical modeling - constructing multivariate models using the computer (for example, the meth...
